Thursday, January 25, 2018

Added Short

This market is bonkers.  The last few days have felt like short capitulation and FOMO wrapped into one.  There comes a point where you just have to go by feel, and ignore the momentum and sheer one sided price action.  Yesterday, I finally saw the kind of intraday volatility that I like to see after a big run.  It felt like shorts went from weak to strong hands.  The jumpiness in the market the last few days is what I like to see when looking for a short term top. 

I thought I might have missed my short add opportunity yesterday when the ES plunged from 2854 to 2825 in an hour, but we're now right back up near 2850, which looks like a gift to short.  I am not going to pass it up this time, I have put in a short in the pre market, raising my average up into the 2780s.  Position is double now, so the moves will be more meaningful until I close out this short.  But I feel like we see 2800 before 2900. 

The weak dollar trend continues, which is what Trump and his team wants. Steve Mnuchin, the yes men of yes men, blurted out his love of a weaker dollar, saying it helps the US economy.  I have said before, the big tax cuts financed by increasing government debt, will eventually result in more dollars in circulation as big budget deficits eventually end up with QE to monetize the debt.  Oil at $66 is no coincidence.  It is going to be consumer pain, corporate gain.  Those $1000 bonuses to workers are PR stunts, the consumers will be shafted with higher inflation which will eat up those bonuses in a hurry, and it will be permanent increases, unlike the bonuses.

5 comments:

MM111 said...

Incredible run up in the market. Small short at 2845.

MM111 said...

Out at 2833 before weekend. Going to check again sunday night.

MM111 said...

Half position small short at 2839. Lets hope 3000 target for 2018 does not come in the FIRST month of the year :)

Market Owl said...

I think Fed comes in next week and talks hawkish to support the dollar. Plus market has been up huge since their last meeting. Of course, they won't do anything but talk, so it might not do much.

Anonymous said...

On monday i would like to see the spx gap up or shoot to 2880. Then I will try a short back to 2830. Still thinl we hit 3200 by end of May