Monday, June 19, 2017

Still Waiting to Short

It is getting closer to the right conditions to short but I continue to be cautious.  10 year yields are still too low, and I would like to see the put/call ratios come down a bit before I proceed.

I am surprised at the healthy gap up post opex today, as usually post opex during the summer is equity negative.  I figured there would be some more nervous hands coming into this week after the dip in tech stocks and with a hawkish Yellen.  It almost seemed like too good of a set up to short.  I'd rather short when there is a lot of good news, not when there is worry.  Last week, I could feel that investors were a bit worried.  It showed up in the market data statistics.

It's looking more like there needs to be another test of the highs in SPX before we can get another move down.  I will wait wait it out at least another day or two, and reassess the situation.   The last thing I want to do is short too early in this dull grinding up  market.

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