Friday, June 9, 2017

No Worries

Well Super Thursday (ECB meeting, Comey hearing, UK vote) is past us with nothing but quick little dips that were all buying opportunities.  Same old, same old.  Now we are making marginal new highs this morning, and I can only say that this is feeling very toppy here, with very low put/call ratios and without much acceleration once we reach new highs.  The market looks overbought and exhausted, running on fumes.

I am trying to hold back on laying out the short till next week, but it is very tempting to start here with SPX trading 2442.  Bonds are finally starting to selloff and that is a good sign here that the move higher is not going to last long.  It seems like CNBC optimism on bonds did the job in forming the top for this move.  I expect 10 year yields to trade 2.15 to 2.25% for the next several days.

The second half of the year should trade very differently than the first half.  The complacency is so thick you can cut it with a knife.  Expecting a lot more volatility in the second half, as these kind of up moves in emerging markets and Europe are signs of investors reaching for more beta and catch up plays.  A bad sign for the intermediate to long term.

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