Friday, April 21, 2017

Chopping Up Both Sides

There is no clear one sided trade.  It is a choppy mess, but this is what it takes to get the market to bottom if it isn't going to have a scary flush lower.  If they can't scare them out, they will wear them out.  It seems like we've been in this slow weak grinding distribution phase for weeks and weeks.

Investors are trying to resist the easy temptation to get bearish due to geopolitics, French election uncertainty, and weakening economic data, but it is wearing them down.  There are only so many false hopes and rallies that you can have before the bulls just give up and say they will sell and wait it out.  Based on the ETF and mutual fund outflows, it looks like we're at that point.

Eventually, perhaps in May, when corporate buybacks come back and the French elections are over, you will get that push back towards 2400.  Until then, I think the rallies will be contained within the same range that we've traded since the beginning of the month.

Slightly bullish here, I am long some S&P.  The odds favor the bulls here, but they aren't overwhelmingly favorable.

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