Wednesday, April 26, 2017

Bull Bore Continues

The energizer bull market goes on and on.  It is a bit tiring to see the same old action, predictable as it is, even when one is on the right side.  But you can't force the market to behave the way you want.  The market will do what it wants to do.  And right now, that is to bore everyone.  

I sold S&P into the rally yesterday, and I am back to a neutral view.  We could pullback a bit, here, but probably only a little bit.  If we did, it would just set up a rally in the first week of May.  The VIX is actually probably overpriced here even at 10.7.  It is that dead of a market.  Think more boring version of the first half of 2015.  

I have a bit stronger view on the bond market, which is negative over the next few weeks.  In June, we are likely to see a ECB tapering announcement and FOMC rate hike and balance sheet taper talk.  Plus, we've seen heavy inflows into bond funds so far this year.  Lastly, you will start to see more concrete tax cut plans coming out (not vague tax plans like today) over the summer, another thing that will weigh on bonds.  Trump has lost some credibility with his poor execution, but he seems determined to jam through a budget buster of a tax cut through Congress.  


Anonymous said...

Tax plan out. Is this the new phase of the bull? Spx 2500 coming? 2750?

Market Owl said...

Not sure about that run to 2500. I think we top out within 3 months. I would not plan on a strong run higher from here.

Anonymous said...

I think minimum we go to 2500 and maximum 3000. This will be the bubble to end all bubbles.