Wednesday, November 18, 2015

No Terror Attack Gap Up

We got the absurb, but high probability no terror attack gap up.  Yes, people are that scared of an overnight terror attack that they will sell stocks and or hedge with futures and unwind the hedge in the morning.  This gap up is the unwinding of the hedge/buying back what they sold yesterday afternoon.

VIX has been reluctant to selloff too much, as it was relatively strong despite the rally mid day yesterday.  It was a foreshadow of afternoon weakness.  Maybe ISIS was buying VIX futures ahead of the terrorist plot in Germany.

We get the highlight of the week, the Fed minutes at 2:00 pm ET.  I am hoping for a hawkish Fed so that bonds go down and provide a buying opportunity.  With the relentless strength of the Bund, there is limited downside for Treasuries at these levels.

Crude oil is weak as usual.  Ho hum.  Hoping for a run down to the mid 30s for a possible swing long play on the long side.  Short term bearish on crude, long term bullish.

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