Friday, April 17, 2015

Waiting for a Good Long Term Play

The money is made in the big moves.  Right now, I am waiting for setups to play a long term big move.  Nothing is too compelling here.  The top of the list is to buy Treasuries on a dip, down towards 2.05-2.10% 10 year yield.  I am also looking into getting short the ES if the traders get too bullish at marginal new highs, around 2120-2140.  Also looking into getting short USDJPY if we get a move back towards 122.

No, I am not interested in buying 1% dips in ES on the way to marginal new highs.  It is picking dimes in front of a bulldozer, and the sudden drops without much warning at the December top and the March top make it dangerous to buy a dip hoping for a consolidation at the top, when it could just be a straight waterfall down 5% with no consolidation.

The Greek worries are simmering here today, and the Eurostoxx has gotten crushed, for rare back to back down days.  Monday probably brings a relief rally, but again, I am not interested in going out on the risk curve unless you get a deep dip, no playing 1% dips for me.  So not much going on here as far as long term trading opportunities.

No comments: