Tuesday, April 28, 2015

Fed Fear Trade Not Far Away

There is really only one thing that worries this market, and that is a Fed that is willing to ignore the stock market, even weakness, in order to get through a rate hike.  I am seeing subtle weakness in the Treasuries even as the S&P goes mostly sideways.  It is not an in your face weakness in fixed income, with weakness across certain sectors, such as investment grade corporates and long term Treasuries.  

The market is very complacent right now about the Fed, thinking that it will be on hold till at least September, so there is a very distinct possibility that the Fed Fear trade is going to open up anytime now, on any slight hint of hawkishness, even though it shouldn't be a big deal, just because of the high levels of fearlessness among equity investors.

This doesn't look like a top, because we need more time to pass from the pullback in March/early April to be put in the investor amnesia bank, but we are almost there.  Mid May would seem to be the perfect time to put on short positions, just as the corporate buybacks provide the bid necessary to get decent sell prices for the shorts.   These corporate buybacks provide their biggest bang right after earnings season is over, and the buyback spigot is open full blast.  Just look at what happened in November last year and February.

On Fast Money last evening, Dennis Gartman emphasized his long Europe/China/Japan equities and short US equities trade.  That can only mean one thing:  that trend is almost over.  

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