Thursday, February 19, 2015

Priced to Near Perfection

There is now Fed fatigue.  Just like Greek fatigue on the bear side, there is Fed fatigue on the bull side.  I saw a graphic on CNBC where they noted that the S&P was up 7 straight on Fed minutes days.  When you have so many conditioned to believe any Fed news is good news, you eventually get immuned to any dovish talk.  That is what happened yesterday, as the Fed minutes ramped the bonds higher, but the move higher in stocks was rather small, 5 SPX points, and that was a struggle to maintain that gain till the close.  And now, we get the gap down after traders already bought the good news.

There are a few headlines on Greece, as if the market is still clinging on every detail.  It really is beating a dead horse.  I am sure Greece loves all the attention, because otherwise no one would care about the country.

I closed out the Treasuries long yesterday, just waiting to re-enter a bit lower.  Looking for a down day today, as we are overbought on many measures, and all the good news is out of the bag.

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

Are you bullish on equities here or do you think we can start selling off starting from Monday?

Market Owl said...

No opinion on equities, I am looking to buy Treasuries on Monday.

Anonymous said...

They shook me out of the tlt trade. Everything was looking great this morning. Economic data has been looking good and im thinking yellen is going to start hinting at a rate increase later this year. I sold breakeven after the greece deal was announced. Short the spy now with puts 212 may at 6.14

Anonymous said...

I am now against all you fucking bulls and hope this market crashes to 1900 muahahahah

Anonymous said...

The bears will be crashed soon...muuhhaaaaaaa...

Market Owl said...

Yeah, I think we are near an exhaustion point for this market, only thing is that we are a bit close timewise since we bottomed, so we may need more time to form a top, as the bulls migrate back into equities. I am starting to looking into shorting the market in early March.