Friday, February 6, 2015

Less than 1% from ATH

The all time high is less than 1% away, with VIX at 16.4, but VIX futures at 18.35.  And there are no big events coming, so the VIX futures are acting quite firm for an up day after a nonfarm payrolls report.  It feels like we're still in this choppy range, and will soon revisit the lower end of the range.  I know I have felt this way before in 2013 and 2014 and it just kept going higher, but in those times, the VIX futures were hovering between 13 and 15 when so close to an all time high.  Big change this time.

Bonds are getting destroyed today on the NFP beat and positive revisions.  Will the Fed finally get rid of their put by raising rates in June?  I wouldn't bet on it, but then again, Janet Yellen is no Bernanke.  She doesn't seem like such a market slave, so far in her tenure.  Staying with crude oil short.  Its the only trade that I have confidence at the moment.


Anonymous said...

Nothing about the crude oil chart looks bearish to me. Looks like the first stage of a v/u bottom in the making. But your call..

Market Owl said...

I don't base my decisions just on charts. I put a much bigger emphasis on fundamentals, futures related data, and fund flows.

There were $2 Billion into oil ETF fund flows in January, That doesn't happen at a bottom. I see continuing ETF inflows and high open interest, which just doesn't happen much at a bottom.