The market is offering another buy the dip opportunity, which I somewhat expected but wasn't sure it would come. Look at these price levels as a gift to get long US equities. I am extremely bullish at these levels, and will look to get long ES between 1925 and 1928, near the lows of the overnight session.
We are on day 13 of the selloff, that began on Monday September 22. For those that remember, I wrote a piece about pullback cycles, where I found that 13 days is a common length for many pullbacks. There is a full moon and lunar eclipse. The bears are growling. The BTFD moment is here. Ignore the doubters, they have been wrong for 5 years, and counting. When they change their tune, and become BTFD specialists, I will worry. We are definitely not there yet. We keep getting these minor pullbacks, that last 2 or so weeks, and the bears come out of the woods and try to scare everyone out of their stocks.
Looking for a possible V bottom today as we get a little panicky trade ahead of the FOMC minutes, where I will look to scoop up stocks.
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7 comments:
Could this be the 10%+ sell-off you mention for next year?
I just got long ES around 1925. I am certain hoping its not the 10% selloff that I was expecting in 2015. If it is, I may not see 2015. Haha.
lol well FTSE has not made a lower low (yet) so bottom may be in but I also wonder if bounce was to 1979 and then we would cascade lower still on s&p. Maybe the ending and draghi disappointment is going to take as down heavily.
*QE ending
I think Draghi is still unsure about how to execute QE in Europe, it is going to be much more complicated than the Fed's QE. But the economy is Europe is bad enough that there is growing support for a QE in Europe.
As for QE ending in the US, yes that will cause a short term rise in long term interest rates, but they are still pretty low so that shouldn't affect stocks much at all. Buybacks and M&A are still happening at a decent pace.
Whoa what a take off. Off to new highs or we just rally for a week or so and then more down perhaps?
Either way, I am going to ride the bounce into next week. But it feels like we want to hit new highs for the year by November.
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