Monday, October 13, 2014

Ebola Crisis

Is an Ebola outbreak taking down this stock market?  If you read the news headlines, you would think that Ebola is taking down the stock market.  Well, Europe had other ideas, as we rallied huge off the European open to current levels in the futures.  In the overnight session, you had true panic and fear as hedgers and those long took down exposure, hedged, or just shorted into the hole hoping not to lose more money.  Often times the scariest moments occur in the overnight session, when there is limited liquidity, and futures are falling through the floor.

I am still long ES, and will hold it into at least Tuesday.  The strong recover in Europe, and the panicky Ebola headlines makes me feel like we put in a short term bottom overnight.  However, I don't think we are out of the woods.  We should have one last liquidation sale later in the week.


Anonymous said...

It doesn't look right. Anyway, what is ur suggestion of what levels to short/long to avoid false break? Thx.

Market Owl said...

Yes, the bounces have all been pretty weak, and faded aggressively intraday. I am looking at ES 1855, or SPX 1860 for a possible flush low, later this week, if we get a opex delta hedging avalanche as the market goes lower.

I am a nervous long here, and don't expect any bounces to go over ES 1915. I will look to bail on any decent gap up or bounce intraday on Tuesday.