Trying to trade both sides leads to overtrading, and while it can be great if you are in the zone and predicting tops and bottoms accurately, but if you are a bit off, it can turn into a nightmare. A couple of weeks ago, I was trading ZN bond futures and I correctly predicted a rally by going long from 124 29/32 to 125 8/32. And then I decided to short it at 125 9/32 because it looked overextended. The market ended up going higher and higher and I got stopped out at 125 14/32. At this point, I was a bit on tilt, lamenting the fact that I sold too early and on top of that, shorted the market right into the teeth of a parabolic rise. The market reversed lower and I got long at 125 11/32, trying to make some of my gains back, thinking we would continue higher on the day. But the market continued to go lower into the close, where I panicked out at 125 4/32. What should have been a nice gain on the day turned into a loss all because I was trying to catch every little move on the day, and because I was playing both long and short back and forth.
In general, everyone has to have a bias for a market. For me, I am biased on the long side in bonds, and biased on the short side in stocks. So when we have a super bullish S&P, I've learned to stay away most of the time. Because I know I am not as good of a trader on the long side of the ES as I am on the short side.
Market continues its chop, not going to play until I get stronger signals for shorts. I do not want to play long except big dips.
No comments:
Post a Comment