Friday, June 13, 2014

Missed Dip Buying Opportunity

We got that brief dip down to ES 1920 (September contract) and it was gobbled up by buyers. With these relentless strong uptrends, the first decent pullback is always bought.  I was waiting for a bit lower to get in, and missed the BTFD opportunity.

Shorting is still not worth it, even though I believe we are topping.  My conviction level on the topping process is not that high, because of the relentlessness of the equity uptrend.  We may yet make another 52 week high soon.  I am not ruling that out.

You still have to be cautious on the short side.  And on the long side, you can buy and wait, and eventually the market will go above your buy price.

Considering how much noise a little thing like Iraq has made in this market, it still seems like longs are not optimistic enough to give me confidence in going short.

Overnight, there was a lethal move in the short term Treasuries, on Carney barking hawkish.  For such a tangential piece of news, was surprised to see 5 yr and 10 yr notes getting crushed, especially as S&P futures were a bit weak.  This doesn't shake my long bond thesis, but it seems like bond investors are a little nervous after the run up in rates recently, plus with the FOMC meeting next week.

It seems like the old, wall of worry over geopolitics weekend, if Iraq doesn't blow up off the face of the earth, we should see a big gap up.  If Iraq is blown to smithereens, we'll probably just have a flat S&P open on Monday, as everything was priced in beforehand!

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