Monday, June 16, 2014

Iraq Scare

The news headlines are all about Iraq.  The armchair daytrader/ geopolitics specialists are out in full force preaching doom and gloom.  CNBC is of course all over it.  What else is there to talk about?  I am not going to be like the other daytrader cum military experts and forecast what will happen in Iraq, or predict that oil prices will skyrocket.  I just go back to past geopolitical events that ended with a whimper and higher equity markets, and that is the base case scenario for these things.  Anything can happen, but to bet on these events cutting off oil production is betting on snake eyes.

For a bull, one has to be more concerned about the newly minted bulls after the ECB meeting and Draghi's QE promises.  The action is toppy, but the more I see the price action, the more I get the feel that we will go higher than most expect.  2100 is not out of the question by year end.  The only thing that could hold back this bulldozer of a bull market is Yellen going hawkish.  I see that about as likely as the Earth getting hit by a monster meteor.

I was thinking perhaps a blowoff top this week or next, but with Iraq lowering prices, that muddies the picture.  I am neutral and waiting to get a better read on the market.

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