Despite the big drop since April 4, we've had net inflows into equity ETFs for the week as shown below. Its a rotation out of "unsafe" tech and small cap ETFs and into "safer" S&P 500 and emerging market ETFs. You would figure there would be some inflows into bonds with the equity weakness, but instead, it has been just more BTFD crowd thinking they will get paid again like they have been numerous times in the past, with a quick rally off a brief pullback. Somehow, the script doesn't seem the same this time. Just a gut feel. Expecting this selloff to extend to post opex week, which is April 21 to 25.
Leaning towards a small gap up for Monday, but I don't see a big snapback rally like we did this week off oversold levels. Unless you get Yellen panicking again over a 3% pullback in the Spoos, talking dovish to support markets.
Friday, April 11, 2014
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