On CNBC Fast Money, on Monday afternoon, the world renowned Dennis Gartman said he was at the gym on a Friday morning, and then he saw the market go down suddenly, and got scared, and sold all his equities. I thought fast money trading were for traders who were in front of their computers all day, not newsletter guys who workout at the gym on Friday mornings after the nonfarm payrolls have come out.
Anyway, I digress, as Gartman has a tendency to get bearish when markets have gone down, and are near a bottom. Him telling me he got scared after a 1.3% down day reflects the retail sentiment on this market. There is no enthusiasm for stocks despite being in a huge bull market. Actually, there is no enthusiasm for anything, stocks or bonds. In fact, I would have to say that the most enthusiasm right now are for commodities.
This doesn't mean we keep going higher along the wall of worry. It just means that a chance of the much awaited and sought after 7-10% correction isn't coming anytime soon. Weak earnings aren't really going to move the needle, because the expectations are already low.
This market feels like TINA, there is no alternative. People allocate assets to stocks, not because they really like them here, but just because yields are low and stocks are considered the best of a bad bunch. I don't agree, as a weakening economy (weather is a poor excuse) will boost bonds, which should continue to outperform this year. Eventually that will drive asset allocations back towards more bonds away from stocks.
I will sell my trading longs this morning, and look to short ES if it gets back towards Friday closing levels.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment