Waiting at 1840

As the market is weakening at the top, it is getting more dangerous to play countertrend by playing the range.  Especially on the long side.  The market rolled over again yesterday, and it is happening despite a strengthening China and resilient Europe.  It seems like a lot of end of quarter shenanigans because I don't see the long emerging markets trade having much legs at all.  In fact, if I had to make a long short trade, it is about time to get long US vs. emerging markets at these levels.  

While it seems like we went from juggling bottles to juggling knives by playing the range, I still see another surge higher next week.  It may be the last one for a while.

SPX 1840 is still an interesting risk reward buy point, especially with a new quarter almost upon us.  China trading more firm tells me a big drop is very unlikely, so I will look to buy ES 1834, which equates to SPX 1840.