Monday, March 24, 2014

China Temporary Stabilization

The biggest weakness for this market is China, and over the past two trading sessions, China has stabilized, the USDCNY exchange range has gone back from 6.2258 Friday to close at 6.1943 today.  I view this stabilization as only being temporary, because the fundamental cracks remain, but traders are clinging to stimulus hopes and that should last till the beginning of April.  

With China out of the picture for the next week or two, the S&P should remain buoyant, and test the upper end of last week's range, which is the all time highs.  The weakness in Treasuries this morning backs up this thesis.  

I don't want to make any aggressive moves here, as I view this market as being very close to the top, but not quite at the top.  So I will wait to make a move, when the price is right.  

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