Thursday, February 27, 2014

Buy at ES 1833

A strong market doesn't often give you a chance to get in when the coast is clear.  It takes price confirmation and a strong bottom to signal near term safety.  The market has given us clues to where it wants to go, by going in that direction in an aggressive manner.   What is more bullish is the bounce in the Russell 2000, which has outperformed the S&P 500 this year.  There is a demand for US-centric companies, and small caps have much less international exposure than big caps.  It is a good sign of demand for US equities when the small caps outperform.

It is the US and maybe Europe and nothing else market.  Japan is no longer in favor, because the USDJPY really can't go up more unless the US economy actually shows enough strength to justify it.  And I doubt that happens.  As for emerging markets, if you mention anything positive about emerging markets, you will be shot down in the meetings, and be branded a contrarian knucklehead.  Being contrarian by being bullish emerging markets doesn't mean you are clever.  It just means you are dumb, and an outcast.  It is akin to being bullish Europe in 2010 because it was cheaper than everything else and the news was bad, only to see 2011 force Europe to its knees.

By the way, TSLA is now over 260, with another gap up.  If I didn't have a better trade lined up, which is to buy the general market, I would consider getting short TSLA for a swing trade.

I didn't have orders in overnight, otherwise that ES 1833 buy would have triggered.  I am hoping for another test of 1833, and a slight break, perhaps down to 1830, to buy stocks.   If I can get long today, I plan to hold through the nonfarm payrolls released next Friday.

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