Wednesday, February 26, 2014

Asset Price Inflation

The last time we were at 1850 in the S&P, on January 22, the 10 year Treasury yield was 2.86%, gold was at 1240, and WTI crude was at 97.  In one month, with the same S&P, the 10 year Treasury is at 2.70%, gold is at 1332, and WTI is over 102.  It has been a rising tide for everything, except maybe emerging market and Japanese stocks.

This makes it difficult to short, because of the global money pump.  It makes me want to get bearish not by shorting US equities, but by getting long bonds or shorting USDJPY.  I still strongly believe that the last man standing will be the S&P 500.  In other words, I don't see USDJPY making new highs, or 10 Year Treasury yields breaking 3%, even if the S&P goes to 1900.

It is much safer to get long bonds than to short stocks in this environment if you are bearish.  I am not bearish yet, but if I do get bearish, it will not be to short the S&P, it will be to get long bonds or short the USDJPY.

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