Friday, May 10, 2013

Easily Spooked Market

We went down all of 12 ES points yesterday from peak to trough, which for all practical purposes means that for most ES trades, the biggest drawdown was probably around 0.6%.  That's nothing.  That is back to prices we were at the day before.  Yet we get the negative nabobs screaming intraday reversal and top.  Traders haven't bought into this market, because we are going up on multiple expansion as the economy slows.  Brian Kelly of Fast Money is still bearish.

That does not mean from a contrarian prospective that we go up forever until the public buys in.  It just means you need the economy to become weaker to see this market go down.  The economy has to enter recession, something that most are not forecasting,  before you get the big correction.  I don't see this market topping out on good news like most markets because I don't see any good news coming.   

Expecting us to grind higher into early June as bears slowly throw in the towel and give up on the Sell in May and Go Away theme.

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