Thursday, May 2, 2013

Central Bank Fatigue

The market got what it wanted, an ECB rate cut and after a quick lift on the announcement, we have given back the whole gain in premarket.  Even yesterday, with the FOMC announcing they are willing to increase QE if the data comes in weaker, didn't move the needle.

The market has priced in the central banks doing whatever it takes.  The expectations are now through the roof!  Now it requires super easy monetary policies with tons of asset purchases just to maintain the status quo.  The market has run up so much on central bank hopes, that you will no longer get big pops on central bank news.  Traders are now realizing that central bank easing and QEs don't raise corporate earnings.  And in the end, corporate earnings are what matters for the stock market.

Still, its a tough market to short, because the sentiment is not at the right place considering the strong price action.  I just don't feel comfortable shorting this market because of the refusal to go down on bad news. 

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