Tuesday, January 29, 2013

FOMC Possibilities

The FOMC announcement is Wednesday and I see a potential here for the market to have a 1 day selloff. Yes, just 1 day, before we bounce back.  The expectations for this meeting are nothing, and I find it hard for the Fed to be any more dovish than they have been.  Given the strong stock market and OK jobs numbers, if there is any change, it will be towards ending QE infinity earlier than people expect.  This will dip stocks and strengthen the dollar, but the biggest effect will be on gold.  Gold is already lagging badly and any hints of an improving economy in the Fed economic outlook will crush gold. 

I don't see anything more than a 1% pullback from these levels.  And it is definitely possible that we just trade in a tight range and keep grinding higher like we have for the past month.  I don't see an edge in shorting here, its better to try to buy on those 1% dips and ride it higher until we get to 1520-1530. 

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