Friday, January 4, 2013

Fed Trial Balloon

The Fed put in a little nugget in its minutes which got bond holders and dollar bears nervous.  The Fed is trapped, and they cannot pull out of QE infinity.  If long term yields are allowed to rise back to where they were just 2 years ago, there will be severe pain at the banks and at many bond funds.  It would be a disaster.  It is a roach motel situation, you can get in, but you can't get out.  Treasury yields will remain low forever, it is Japan revisited where central banks need to keep yields low for the federal government to be able to manage its interest payments. 

It is a mass migration from bonds into equities, we are in the 6th or 7th inning, so even though equity fundamentals are bad, and getting worse, you have a search for yield as investors are getting more and more comfortable with equities.  Expecting continued upside in stocks for at least another week. 

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