Friday, December 14, 2012

SPX 1430 the Red Zone

The air starts to get thin above 1430, you can feel the longs get shaky legs, lacking oxygen, the market wobbles.  There are more spontaneous intraday selloffs above that level.   Above 1430, insiders sell zealously. so unless you get hedge funds chasing longs, the supply demand equilibrium favors shorting.

At the other end, you have the green zone, which is 1350.  Below 1350, insider selling is absent, bountiful Fed liquidity starts seeking equities, regardless of fundamentals, and you can't sustain those levels without popping.  There are no crashes in this unlimited liquidity environment.  Crashes are born from financial stress, panic, credit strains,  Not a slowing economy entering recession.  So don't expect huge downswings in the market just because AAPL misses earnings or GDP is at zero.  If we do get a bear market again, it will be a grinder, not a crasher.

Expecting more weakness over the coming days, 1400 is beckoning during opex week, and then when it gets darkest, I assume we'll get a deal announcement late next week that will pop us back to 1430, just in time to crush the put premiums for Dec 21 options.

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