These FOMC meetings happen just like script. If they go away from the script, it is always to the dovish side, i.e., bigger, longer, more money printing. After QE3, even the masses have caught on that Ben will never disappoint the market. He will do at least as much as the media expects, and probably a bit more. I remember when QE2 was announced, the market expectations were around $500B in bond purchases, he beat the consensus number and went to $600B, Wall Street style! Right then and there, I knew this guy was a fraud, whose only goal in life was to please Wall Street. He's Fire Marshall Bill and Smokey the Bear.
So if today's expectation is $45B a month in Treasury purchases forever, he would go for $50B a month just to beat the consensus number! He would never think about doing less than $45B because he doesn't want to "spook" the market. As if a few billion here and there on a 4 trillion balance sheet actually matters.
Anyway, we're overbought and right around levels right before QE3. Only this time, everyone is expecting the move, and know Banana Ben will deliver. I am expecting a pullback on Thursday and Friday, after the Fed does its thing.
Wednesday, December 12, 2012
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