Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Road to Re-risking

We are climbing it.  The Wall of Worry.  I don't even know why anyone would worry anymore.  Haven't the ECB and the Fed given investors the green light by saying:  we've got your back, we will save the world with euros and dollars coming out of every orifice of the financial beast.  The August to October time frame was a trip to the detox center, a trip to an Indian sweat lodge.  The financial system is now "cleansed" from weak hands, worry warts, and eternal pessimists.  They are clearly risk free, and the market, with the removed baggage, has been moving with a light footedness of the post crash markets of 2009 and 2010. 

It takes time to re-risk, both from a logistical and a psychological perspective.  Deriskers will not immediately re-risk.  It takes time to suck them back in, to regain their trust.  So the market will not rocket higher to 1400-1500, but it will climb, slowly and steadily, with dips that will be bought because the central bankers will not let anything fail.  And then slowly but surely, this rally will get old, too many will be back on board, and we'll be ready to fall again.  But that is a long time coming.  Just ride the wave higher, buy the dips, and stop trying to short.  The time to short will come several months later.  The time for shorts has come and gone.  It is now the bull's time to feast.

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

Long PPO @ 37.25

Ol DAWG

Anonymous said...

you down with PPO?

yeah you know me..

who's down with PPO?

every last dawgie

Market Owl said...

Romney will beat Obama. Obama has no shot against a moderate Republican. People want change again, they realize Obama was all talk, no action.

Anonymous said...

"Member"( elitetrader username): OK Its fine with me if Obama looses ..but please we need a president who is intelligent... not this callous knucklehead please...All these who were born with a silverspoon in their ass are out of touch...

Anonymous said...

"Member"( elitetrader username):
There are people and there are the Romneys...Even Bush was a person not like Mitt