Tuesday, October 11, 2011
Looking Short
I am very close to entering a short position. The situation is almost just right, it would be nice to have some good news to short into, perhaps the Slovakia passage of the EFSF will do it. We tagged SPX 1200 and have sold off in the past 30 minutes. We've rallied 125 points in 5 trading days. We are set up for a pullback very soon. Target on the pullback is 1130. I am thinking Thursday or Friday. It should be a whopper of a 1 day decline which gets the crowd bearish again.
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13 comments:
1130 in a 3 days? that one big drop.
No, I am expecting the drop from 1194 to 1130 to happen over 2 days. One of those days should be a 45-50 point whopper to the downside.
Looks like it's rejected 1200.
MarketOwl, what makes you believe we have a whopper down day coming? Just yesterday, you were thinking buy the dips.
I was thinking of buying the big dip, not any dip. We just moved up too much too fast, after hitting a new 52 week low. Usually a big pullback is in order after a 120 up move in 5 days. Also, European markets like DAX are bumping up against big resistance levels.
Greece has a debt payment due this Friday on the bonds. The market will sell off late Thursday.
1130 is nothing. market has a 30 handle range/day
AA missed and trading down 4%. China screwed = Global slowdown real. We are now in earnings season folks.
Slovakia voted down the EFSF, they will likely vote for it the next time. Earnings season will be bad, but expectations have been lowered a lot. We are getting some weakness off the bad news but surprisingly little considering how much we've run up. A strong market. I will delay my short till probably Thursday or Friday.
the longer we go without a pullback the larger and more violent it will be.
pullbacks are very healthy for a bull market.
We are not going into recession but the growth will be so anemic it will feel like it. People won't be spending...get ready.
on the flipside, strong squeezes such as what we had recently is healthy for bear market
markets don't squeeze 10% in bull markets but happen often in bear markets.
"We are not going into recession" - we are going into a depression, not recession...
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