The action the past week was defined by lots of volatility and a slight upward slope. The range was not that big for the week, about 27 points, but there was lots of back and forth action. It is ironic that we finished near the high of the week when traders were supposedly afraid to be long ahead of a 3 day weekend. We're in an intermediate downtrend now but in the short term, we could go a bit higher. There has yet to be a true moment of relief other than Friday, February 5. If we go up today and have another moment of relief by longs, that should be a great short entry for the rest of the month. A 50% retracement of the down move from 1147 to 1041 would be at 1094. I think that is the upper bound for any short term rally. The lower bound for a selloff is 1026, which is the low from November, and near the 200 day MA. I don't believe we go up in V pattern like in 2nd half 2009. Those dips were never 100 points like this time. We'll need to do some more work at lower levels before going higher.
I am intermediate term bearish but I think there will be relief buying today after a long weekend where nothing eventful happened. Crude oil and gold trading higher should be a tell for today. I expect the markets to trend up intraday. I have closed my short position in premarket and will reinitiate my short later, probably at the close.
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I see a good price entry on EDZ..
But I have a feeling we're gonna squeeze higher just because we broke the range to the upside.
But this setup has a heavy heavy gravity pull on it. Mkt's like this don't go up much.. i think.
Long EDZ at 5.50
OL DAWG
5.50 is a good price for EDZ.
Dawg,
did you get short today?
Man, it's pretty dead today.
Dawg, I have been watching your trades lately. I have been a buy and hold investor and lost a lot in MSFT, PFE, and others. I now want to follow your steps to trade a few things to get some money. I bought EDZ at 5.52.
What is going on with Bonds, short covering?
Unbelievable!!
I wasn't even going to post today. I don't need to gloat over my correct calls. "Shorts getting crushed" and SWHC.
But when I read the post from Anon saying he's following Dawgs trades!!
Are you F*cking kidding me??
No offense to the Dawg. He's made some good quick trades.
But who in there right mind would invest their hard earned money into a stock tip from a message blog???? Without doing there own homework?? These people are incredible desperate. I guess I need to start my own blog or investment website and charge a fat monthly fee. Absolutely pathetic. I'm still stunned.
And how could you lose money in MSFT?? Did you buy it in 2000 when it was $58? If you bought it 5 years ago you'd still be up 10% even without the dividend!!! OMG
I am out!! and done posting on this site.
Wow dude... i am at loss for words.
Anyways,
Anon... I'm a short term trader and I trade mostly stocks that are a few bucks because they have a greater percentage move than your garden variety market stocks like MSFT, PFE.
Good luck with EDZ.
Be prepared to average down if it goes lower and I would get out altogether if it looks like the mkt is going to retest the high of 1150, which I seriously doubt.
But if it looks that way, i am getting the fuck out and will buy back in again at 4.50 or lower.
But again, I doubt that will happen.
Also be prepared to sell out and take a quick 5% profit if it goes over 5.70.
If you notice, I usually trade stocks after they make a good size move one way or the other. Usually never trade breakouts.
Hey Anon,
for what it's worth... I will tell you this.
There is a large variety or spectrum if you will of people who trade and also post their opinions/trades on either twitter or blogs.
Now I don't have a blog but I have a twitter feed where I post my trades, opinions, the description of the hot chicks ass I just saw, etc etc... and I will just say that there are indeed people who trade who are on the internet who are worth their mettle. Yeah some of these people are definitely better than the typical Harvard MBA fund manager working at Fidelity.
So you can't knock people for being influenced by some of the people who post.
If they are getting trades right time after time, there is probably a very good reason for that.
They will not post their backgrounds, so you won't know where they're coming from. BUt that is what's so great about the market, you have no idea if JOe Schmoe is buying shares or if it's George Soros.
Enjoy man and good luck with the Smith and Wesson.
Volume is sickly today.
The dollar is holding support
Bonds are up
Gonna go short here another 25%
Thanks Dawg.
What can be worse. I have been saving 20% each month for the last decade mostly in Fidelity Mutual funds. My portfolio ended up less than what I put in. I got out of most of the funds now and hope to make a few luckier trades to catch up a little.
I did read newsletters and watch Nightly Business report on OPB. It seems I always lose when following those professional advices. 5-star funds when I got in and 1-star when I got out. And now I stuck with PFE...
I am very sorry to hear that.
I'm guessing you put most of your money in US equities.
The last decade happened to be one of the only if i'm not mistaken in the last 100 years where US equities ended up lower than where they began.
Buy and hold is now officially dead unless otherwise proven wrong in the US market.
Time your buys and sells if you want to maximize returns. And if you don't have enough time every day to watch every tick in a stock at least wait for big moves to happen before you dump all of your money in and bet the ranch.
A good example would be March of 2009. You have to double down in times like that and they will come around at most once a year. Usually every few years or so.
on Smith and Wesson, since you bought in at 3.90 and it is now 4.34, i am not sure it is still good price to get in.
Here's my game plan for EDZ. I will buy more at 5.25 if we have another 1% up day tomorrow. It will likely be a double down if not more.
If it goes lower, well by then the market will have clearly broken 1100 to the upside and probably be pushing like 1110 and 1120 and people are going to wonder if we're going to test the old high of 1150.
Well I seriously doubt that will happen but if it does, EDZ will be practically 5 dollars by then and I will get out and lose 10% or so.
It's the nature of the game.
Hopefully the market starts heading south starting from tomorrow. We hit an important resistance level on the market today, and it is supposed to be the higher end of the range. So with any luck we start going down tomorrow and EDZ will be close to 5.90 early next week.
Yo Owl,
What's the game plan?
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