Its palpable now. You can sense the fear, the gloom in the air. Right as the SPX is testing the 4250-4300 zone, a hard support area from last fall and in late January. The Fed is temporarily out of the picture. Its Russia/Ukraine news, all day, every day. Full blast. You would think Russia and Ukraine were some kind of financial and economic hub if you saw the price action in global index futures over the past few days.
When you are long and you see the futures plunging overnight, its natural to question your sanity for being long, when everyone out there is talking about the negatives in the market, the bearishness is the most extreme I've seen since spring of 2020. This easily tops the 2020 election uncertainty, which feels like happy days compared to the war doom and gloom that you see out there. My Twitter stream is filled with Russia/Ukraine 5 minute macro expert takes, about how Putin will take over all of Ukraine, etc. You can only laugh at it if you want to maintain your sanity in this craziness. Especially when you are long.
Its a lonely place, expecting higher prices this week after seeing the news flow. Its easy to feel like an idiot when all the scaremongers are out in droves spreading the bearish gospel, and seeing the market go down. But intuitively, I get more confident in my position when I see this, when I know that fundamentally, war doesn't have negative economic effects, rather, they are expansionary, and because of the pansy Fed and ECB, who don't have the balls to raise rates aggressively while a war is going on with the SPX trading weak. Sure, if the SPX was making new all time highs, they would ignore Russia, but when its trading weak, they won't ignore it. They even metioned Ukraine in the Fed minutes, and that was referring to the situation 4 weeks ago. So with things getting this hot in Ukraine, its a guarantee that 50 bps is off the table for the March meeting, and that's a win for the stock market, which was scared about a hawkish Fed more than anything before the Russia headlines took over Of course, none of the bears screaming their war takes will ever mention that.
I plan on adding more long exposure today, as the EU seems to finally be putting on sanctions on Russia, getting closer to the end of what will eventually be done. Its not the war itself that causes stock market weakness, it is the lead up to the war that cause its. This retest of the January lows feels scary to be buying, but with fundamentals actually better now than before things got heated in Ukraine (less hawkish central banks, now) its makes it a higher probability that the retest will be successful.
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11 comments:
전쟁 이슈가 매수 타이밍이라는 것을 대부분의 시장 참여자들이 알고 있기 때문에, 과거와 같은 운율은 없을 것입니다. 월급 150만 원 짜리 알바생들 조차도 다 아는 그런 것ㅡ구글,유튜브 검색으로 개나소나 다 아는 것들에 수익을 기대할 수는 없습니다.그 누구도 공포를 느끼지 않고 죽음에 대해 일절 생각하지 않는 것을 현장을 돌며 확인하였습니다. 그저 모니터와 스마트폰에 띄워진 숫자만 보며, 안일하게 존버만 하는 바보들은 나의 온리 풋옵션 매수에 더욱 강한 확신을 줄 뿐입니다.
저는 구글검색에 없고, 트위터에서 발견되지 않는 의견에 베팅합니다.분명히 승률은 낮으나, 99번 패배하더라도 단 한 번의 승리면 충분 합니다.
english only pls
But every dog and cow and poor part time student thinks the market is going to keep going down now that war is happening.
Life isn't all about money. Life is about life.
War Doom and Gloom. That's your title, that you came up with. Didn't I say the end times are fast approaching? We are now here.
End times? Wars happen throughout history, and stocks usually go up during war. Stocks are a money game, not a human game. Ita not about supply and demand for bad news, Its about supply and demand for money. So many people getting emotional about war, and thats when people make mistakes.
Day by day, the market is getting positioned and prepared for bad outcomes, which make it less likely to happen.
Looks like you need more proof. I guess the corona, civil unrest, vax mandates, war, isn't enough. Because it's just history right?
People are so soft these days. Corona is a nothing burger compared to Spanish flu. Civil unrest? You kidding me? Vax mandates? Are you a Trumper and believe that Vaccine BS? LOL. And this war has been blown so out of proportion to its actual significance in the market, its unreal the hysteria over this.
People don’t know how good they have it. They’re so spoiled. Even their parent’s generation had it so much tougher. Try hand washing all your clothes, washing cloth diapers with crap all over it, no cellphones, no internet. Spoiled.
Damn. They always seem to give you a bounce overnight and morning to get out. Then they tank it.
Pure panic and liquidation now. Manage risk to weather the storm.
Would you stay long or cut losses on any rebound? what is your timeline?
My timeline is extended to early April now, looking for a rebound towards 4560 -4580. Reduced my position a bit to manage risk, but still holding a core position
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