Another V Bottom?

The strength off the Monday low has been immense.  And this on what most would consider a hawkish Powell at the FOMC meeting yesterday.  Its almost as if everyone has the same BTFD playbook, and once they feel that the coast is clear (FOMC meeting over), they all rush in at the same time and frantically buy with both hands.  Once I saw that opening 15 minute candle this morning, I knew it was lights out for the bears today.  You can usually extrapolate rising prices for the next 90 minutes off those first 15 minutes of price action.  When they are that aggressive pushing prices up straight off the open, you know those are motivated buyers willing to pay up and quickly.  

It's been V bottom after V bottom all year long, so now it seems most are expecting it.  That's why you get this kind of frantic buying at the open after the up day yesterday, and people not wanting to miss out on the fast and steady gains that always come after a V bottom.  

This could be another V bottom, we did get a lot of panic selling on Monday and put volumes were high, but if you get a V bottom here and hit new all time highs, the trend is a bit too steep and fast for it to be sustainable.  After the amount of rallying that has already happened in 2021, basically a straight line higher from 3750 to 4550 over 8 months, the market usually consolidates those kind of fast gains by going sideways for several weeks, but the fund inflows and FOMO is so intense that people keep rushing in regardless of the high levels and these sideways consolidations don't last, and it just keeps going higher.  

Since the market started trending lower after Labor Day, there was only one day where I sensed any kind of fear, and that was Monday.  Even last Friday, the selling seemed calm and traders weren't rushing to buy put protection.  And from Tuesday, its almost as if traders fear not being all in for another V rally more than they fear being all in during a big decline.  The greed factor is still very high, and that makes it hard to sustain a downtrend when everyone knows that you have to buy the dip.  

I didn't really take full advantage of that dip on Monday, so it would be nice if the market actually chopped around instead of going straight back up, but the market doesn't oblige traders, it does what it wants to do.  Its tough to chase here, because we didn't really flush out that many weak hands, they are all just clinging on waiting to sell after we hit new all time highs again.  

I'll just be patient, if it comes back down, I'll buy, if it runs away from me and keeps marching higher, like it has all year, then I missed it.  Its tough to be on the sidelines when everyone else is making money, but I'll wait for better risk/reward setups.