Thursday, June 3, 2021

AMC Up 3700% in 18 months

Lots of unintended consequences of bubble blowing Fed policy with QE of $120 billion per month as the SPX rockets higher along with commodities, real estate, art, cryptos, and even sports cards.  

Exhibit A:


 As of June 2, 2021, close, AMC market cap is $29 billion with approximately 460 million shares outstanding.  On December 31, 2019, before the pandemic, the AMC market cap was $750 million with approximately 104 million shares outstanding.  So a company that took on massive amounts of debt and dilution to stay alive in 2020, has gone up 3700% in less than 18 months as its business deteriorates.  All because of a bunch of internet stock pumpers.  

And then you have AMC offering 1 free large popcorn at theatres to their retail shareholders.  LOL.  You can't make this stuff up.  

And its not just AMC.  It happened to GME.  And various sketchy EV names that have since gone down a lot since January but are still much higher than year ago levels. 

And yet the Fed keeps insisting that the inflation is transitory, which is what you would expect from Powell who is scared shitless about the bubble popping before he gets re-nominated by Biden as Fed chair.  Powell is nurturing this bubble  till he gets his next 4 years confirmed and then we'll probably see some token taper talk and eventually a turtle taper announcement.  

There are just speculative waves going on here.  First it was the coronavirus stocks in the summer of 2020.  Then the EV and biotech stocks from November 2020 to February 2021.  Then the meme stocks from January 2021, dying down and then a vicious return in May/June of this year.  Of course, you had the crypto run from November 2020 to April 2020 before you saw the big drop in May.  

In the meantime, you keep getting record auctions for art, NFTs, and sports memorabilia. 

I never thought I would see a bigger bubble than the dotcom bubble from 1998 to 2000.   This tops that.  In both breadth and magnitude, as well as the insanity of the moves.  Just completely irrational prices based on the greater fool theory of investing.  

And you have Biden who is completely senile and on stimulus automatic pilot.  Regardless of rising inflation or market signals of overheating, he keeps wanting more stimulus.  That's all he knows.  Just completely off his rocker and thinking 2020 is like 2008.  

And I'm sure the CPI and PCE will continue to vastly underestimate inflation because it uses hedonic pricing, substitution effects, and owner equivalent rent which are totally irrelevant for anyone who actually spends money.  This will give room for the Fed to say that inflation is under control and to keep ZIRP policy forever.  

The millenials, looking to build wealth, buy a house, etc. now feel like they have no choice but to say screw it, the only way I'll be able to get rich is to hope there are more suckers willing to buy up grossly overvalued meme stocks so I can sell at higher prices to a bigger sucker.  In the end, the rich will get richer as they snap up real estate while the millenials will end up holding the bag in AMC, GME, BB, etc.  

It continues to be a dead market for stock indices and bonds.  Nothing to do there.

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