Wednesday, May 12, 2021

Blockbuster CPI print

 CPI came out hot today.  Even with the government lies and manipulation of the inflation number, the inflation number was big.  The Fed will say that its transitory.  You have enough lemmings on Wall St. who soak up all the drivel that the Fed spews out that a lot of people still think inflation is transitory.  If this kind of inflation is transitory, then by extension, and logic, life is transitory.  If inflation goes up in a staircase fashion, 20% one year, and then flat for 3 years, its the same as if it went up 5% per year for 4 years.  But in the first case, a 20% jump would be considered transitory, even though prices never went back down.  But in the second case, it would be considered 5% inflation.

These prices aren't coming back down.  Prices are sticky on the upside, and transient on the downside.  Transitory is an excuse for Powell to suck up to Biden.  To give Biden what he wants.  An overheating economy that will boost wage inflation and cause businesses to raise prices to stay afloat.

Jerome Powell is looking more and more political and less believable by the day, as the inflation keeps running hot, wages keep going higher, and his easy money policy is starting to backfire.  The main concern of the market is inflation, and its looking for any kind of action or even talk from the Fed to put out the fire before it turns into a raging inferno.   

I covered shorts into the selloff today and will look to get long any further dips from here.  After a very strong rally with no significant dips for several weeks, the first dip is usually bought.  This is that first dip.  The fact that market is selling off because of the CPI makes it less durable.   This fear based on inflation should not last for long.  Powell will not react to a hot CPI number, so its effect on Fed policy is basically zero.

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