Stimlus Hopes

For the White House, the stock market is their score card, or is it their plaything where they buy and sell in anonymous offshore accounts to take advantage of headlines that they make?  I am no conspiracy theorist, but something smells fishy when Trump/Mnuchin/Pelosi make either "positive" or "negative" market moving comments on things like trade deals and stimulus when after most of them, they ending up meaning nothing and just end up being short term market movers.  

Are we having fun yet with these daily stimulus updates?  These politicians, absolute scumbags, who think that they are doing the public a big favor by giving them $1200 checks while trillions more pour into who knows where to feed the beast, never to be seen by the public, which feeds the Washington swamp in a grift cycle that has gone into overdrive in 2020.  

I thought they would agree to more fiscal stimulus a while ago, but with the stock market doing well, obviously the politicians don't feel any urgency to act.  What probably happens is that they do get a deal at the last minute before the election, but then the Senate decides to delay the vote till after the election to save those that are against the bill but don't want to have to explain that to an angry public during the election campaign.  

The politicians are masters at pleasing the market, because that's all they've tried to do over the last 4 years, while doing almost nothing.  So its more of the same till the election.  Keep hope alive, always kick the can and keep the carrot in front of the donkey so that he keeps moving forward, but don't give him the carrot, because once its gone, then the donkey stops.  

It is interesting to note that from last week's CFTC data, you saw a lot of short covering in Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 futures from large speculators.  It seems like the more bearish large speculators have mostly thrown in the towel on looking for more downside and have reduced risk ahead of the election.  I don't get the same feeling from those large speculators that are bullish, as I am still seeing relatively low put/call ratios and big bets for a lower VIX in the coming months.  

And it seems like an optimistic spin is put on almost every bit of news, where its Biden building his lead in the polls which leads to Dem sweep speculation, or whether its the daily Pelosi pumps about stimulus, etc.  Yet here we are, grinding lower since last Monday.  And despite that, Treasuries can't seem to catch a bid, and keep getting sold.  Clearly, fund managers are looking past the stimulus headlines and preparing for the election and the aftermath.  Really, if the stimulus was behind us, the market probably would have already bottomed, but its that crack cocaine hopes of more stimulus that keeps the bulls invested, hoping for a big pump on the news of a deal.  

I am going with the price action and staying short until I start seeing some negative headlines and/or signs of worry.  I am seeing neither yet.