Thursday, July 23, 2020

Price Action in Nasdaq

This choppy action with Nasdaq lagging is exactly the type of price action that I was looking for.  It confirms that the blowoff top last week, and retested in after hours on Monday has led a cascade lower in the Nasdaq since then.  This is how stocks trade when there is buyer saturation and the marginal buyer is at much lower levels, while the marginal sellers are looking to get out more aggressively. 

Here are a few of the things that are great signs for bears that happened this week:

1) Nasdaq short squeeze on Monday, followed by extreme lagging performance the next 3 trading days. 
2) Dollar much weaker this week and it still hasn't helped the indices sustain higher prices.  It puts a hole in the theory that a weak dollar is supportive for stocks. 
3) Low put/call ratios throughout the week until the middle of today's trading session, and then Nasdaq stocks fell off a cliff.  Still a lot of call buying in Nasdaq names, surprisingly. 
4) S&P 500 breakout above 3230, the break even point for the year, getting bulls excited, building complacency, and then rug pull today. 
5) Got the EU recovery fund deal out of the way, and not much angst or concern about phase 4 coronavirus deal.  Everyone knows a deal will get passed, so lack of worry means it is already priced in, so not a positive catalyst. 

Plan is to add to short index positions if we get a reflexive bounce next week, preferably around SPX 3270-3280.  If it doesn't get there, may just add anyway after AAPL/AMZN earnings next Thursday. 

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