Thursday, August 2, 2018

Getting Heavy

You can look at a market sometimes and it just feels like it is getting heavier.  There isn't as much lift, and even good news, such as AAPL earnings, doesn't last for long.  In fact, look at what the FANG+ index, with top 10 momentum Nasdaq stocks, has done compared to SPX YTD.   The FANG+ index is now underperforming the SPX even more clearly than before.

You would figure with blockbuster AAPL earnings and trade war fears would have helped out the FANG stocks yesterday, but it performed about as well as SPX. 
It is not small caps that lead the market, it is tech stocks, and in particular, large cap tech growth stocks. 

Now we are supposedly gapping down on trade war fears.  Whatever happened to the euphoria over the US/EU trade deal just last week?  Don't pay attention to the news.  Pay attention to what has driven this overvalued market higher over the last few years, and if those can't go up anymore, then this market is going to have a hard time going higher. 

On a side note, the price action in bonds looks horrible, it keeps going lower and even when stocks are weak, it can barely rally, or sometimes just goes down with stocks.   It seems like the monetary tightening by the Fed and the huge budget deficit-led supply build in Treasuries is taking a toll on the market. 

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