Thursday, July 26, 2018

FANG + Trade Deal Top?

There is a FANG+ Index that includes the following 10 big cap tech stocks:  FB, AAPL, NFLX, GOOG, BABA, BIDU, NVDA, TSLA, and TWTR.  Here is the YTD performance: 

That chart doesn't include the after hours drop in FB.  While the SPX index has made a higher high since the June local top, the FANG+ index has not.  And for the first time this year, the big cap tech stocks has lagged the SPX.  It reminds me a little bit of 2000, when during a Fed tightening cycle and a weak bond market, the Nasdaq topping out first in early March, and the SPX topping out a few weeks later, marking the top of that bull market. 

With earnings disappointments in NFLX and FB near an all time high for Nasdaq, the signs of a top are slowly building up.  The FB reaction to a small earnings miss is especially harsh and speaks to the level of expectations that are built up in these nosebleed valuations.  It looks like those that want to get in on the FANG+ names are already in.  Those that aren't already invested are probably not going to touch these stocks unless they trade at a much lower valuation. 

We finally got the good trade news as the US made a deal with the EU, and we had a monster short squeeze into the close yesterday.  Then the euphoric atmosphere was ruined by FB bombing earnings.  The weakness in bonds is something that adds to the vulnerability of the equity market.  I was looking to short today after that euphoric close, but FB's big drop has put a pause to those plans.  I am still looking to add short, but would like a more clear setup, since I am going to be picky about adding to an underwater short. 

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