Monday, March 12, 2018


That nonfarm payrolls number got some traders excited, as we are now back to post crash highs in the SPX.  The bulls will not go down without a fight.  After the big corporate tax cuts, the coming massive corporate buybacks will provide support for the market during dips.  There will have to be some notable signs of an economic slowdown before you will get down moves that last for more than a few days. 

Also, on a strong nonfarm payrolls number, the 10 year yield didn't go up much, which is an equity positive.  If the bond market calms down and stabilizes under 3% 10 year, you will at least get a consolidation at the top for stocks, meaning SPX going back to at least the all time highs at 2870. 

It is going to take time to form a top like most bull markets.  It won't be as easy as making a blowoff top and going straight down like you see on some other markets.  Also, the SPX is the strongest major stock market in the world, so it is acting like what strong markets do, which is have brief corrections that lead to sharp rallies. 

I suspect that the rise in bond yields is already starting to have an effect on household borrowing.  Just look at the US personal savings rate over the last 10 years.  Its been going down rapidly since the middle of 2017.  The US consumer is not in a strong position, and if stocks happen to go into a bear market, that will be the knockout blow. 

1 comment:

soong said...

This is Long Timing. Let's go!