Usually when the dumb money starts making money, it is usually close to the top of the move. And retail is making money in the stock market. I don't ever recall this kind of straight up market even in 1999. This is something different, and definitely harder to trade short-term. After I close out this badly timed short, I will have to choose a different way of making a bearish bet on this market. Either through a different equity index, bonds, or commodities.
It was foolish to have even tried to short one of the strongest index of them all throughout this bull market, the final boss, the S&P 500. I will go after easier targets next time. Hopefully I get a chance at a graceful exit within the next few weeks. There has to be a pullback in here somewhere, right? If not, it will get ugly for shorts like me. As painful as it is watching the daily gap ups, I will hold the position waiting for a panicky down day to cover. The VIX is finally firming up so it gives me a bit more confidence that a pullback is near.
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Insanity continues. Now it looks like it's getting ready to blast past 2852. FTSE was down a bit but I can see that rising now and the S&P, after the tiny pullback to 2824, following suit. Long live trump.
2852 easily broken. More shorts trapped.
2866 this must be some kind of joke now.
2870...
I feel you man, been short too. Added every pop and got out unscathed on Wed reversal, only to start adding again and now under water...again. Luckily I had some stocks to offset these losses, but it's psychologically difficult when you know, from a probability standpoint, that down/sideways is the higher occurring play. We shall see.
Its been a difficult market. I think State of the Union on Tuesday should be buy rumor sell news. Also, hearing pension rebalance out of stocks towards bonds will be huge, about $25B.
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