Wednesday, October 11, 2017

On their A-Game

They are on their A-game.  I am talking about fund managers.  It is easy to not make big mistakes when you are making money.  An equity market at all time highs and a bond market that is stable is about as ideal an investing environment for institutions.  They will not do anything rash under these conditions. 

While you can question their long term positioning, in the short term, they are not making the mistake of puking out positions on a short term dip, because they have learned their lesson.  They realize it is a loser's game to set tight stops and regularly get stopped out, only to see the market reverse right away and go higher. 

It is a lot like poker players, when they are making money, they play more optimally and make better bet, call, and fold decisions.  There is no feeling of desperation to make their money back, so they can play more calmly and without need.  Usually those that are losing money start to play more hands, try to win more pots, and go on tilt.

Right now, the players in the game are making money, and not making any short term mistakes.  To try to make short term money in this market is like trying to squeeze blood out of a rock.  I would rather just play high stakes poker.  At least that game is more interesting than trading this market.

Here is the thing about playing the money game.  You have to want it, but not need it.  Those that can trade without a need to make money can play the long game, looking out months and years ahead.  Getting caught up in the day to day market action can often prevent one from catching the longer term opportunities.  That is where the real money is. 

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