Tough to Time

This thing is taking its time at the top here.  I would have liked to see more volatility up here and some more weakness following last week's post FOMC intraday reversal.  But its reverting back to the same boring small range trade that it has been doing for months.  My conviction has been reduced a bit so I have accordingly reduced my short.  Still think we will go down to 2420 this month, but that probability is going down bit by bit with this kind of boring trade.

Crude oil is getting supported by Saudi Arabia, who seems to be cutting production to keep prices close to $50.  OPEC is basically Saudi Arabia, and they are trying to keep prices afloat ahead of the Saudi Aramco public offering.  Look for crude oil to go back down after the IPO since Saudis don't want to be the only one supporting oil here.

Will be taking a blog break for a few days, next post is likely going to be next week.