Friday, December 16, 2016

Due for a Pullback

With the Fed turning more hawkish, we have laid the foundation for the market to consolidate its gains and have a pullback.  Yellen has decided that the stock market is a little overheated.  Trust me, the Fed knew how the market would perceive 3 rate hikes forward guidance.  It wanted to cool this freight train down, and I think she will get what she wants, at least for the next several days.

It also coincides with the high optimism and heavy inflows into equity ETFs since the election.  It has been over 5 weeks since the election, and that has given most institutional investors plenty of time to add positions and after this Fed announcement, I don't see them adding to positions with just 2 weeks left in the year and with the newly feared January ahead.  It used to be that Januarys was a bullish month where investors put risk money to work in the new year.  That hasn't been the case since 2014.

I will be shorting the S&P for a trade today and will ride probably hold it into next week.  This will be one of my first S&P trades since the election, as the market isn't that good for trading at the moment.  I am playing for a post opex pullback as Yellen tries to be the party pooper.  Not looking for much, perhaps 20 points down.

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