Monday, July 11, 2016

All Time Highs

Who would have thunk it.  All time highs 2 weeks after Brexit.  The market is getting smarter.  In the past, maybe 5 years ago, the market would have lingered at the lows for an extra week before blasting off to higher ground.  But the scarecrows have so underperformed and been taken out to the cleaners that you have the dip buying monsters waiting to gobble up any weakness.  Only when you have extreme moves in things such as crude oil or the dollar do you get enough macro waves to get the market to show real weakness.  Fake crisis like Brexit are just viewed as buying opportunities in S&P 500.

It is going to be a boring summer.  Unlike last summer, when you had a more complacent market and a longer period of topping heading into it, this time, you haven't built up enough complacency to get any kind of real weakness.  Sure, you can have a small dip here and there, but nothing really worth playing for.  It reminds me a little bit of the summer of 2012, except the market is smarter this time.  Less time lingering at lows, and more time lingering near tops, making it tough for short sellers.
The general public still is in denial because it seemed like there was going to be a big crisis just 2 short weeks ago, with the media frenzy and fearmongering over Brexit.  Now, we are at all time highs but the crowd still can't believe it.  So it will take time for the crowd to catch on and really buy in to the bull thesis.  That is what you would call a topping process.  I give this uptrend at least 2 more weeks.  From there, I will reassess.  As I have said a couple of weeks ago, now is not the time to be a bear.  If you are a natural bear, take a break.  It is the bull's time.

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