Monday, June 27, 2016

Perfect Scenario Eliminated

This Brexit has really ruined the setup that was I really looking for:  a final euphoric pop on no Brexit, which would have provided a awesome opportunity to go all in short, and then have a plunge lower when the market realized that the fundamentals were horrible.  Now you have the market totally prepared for more weakness, even though for the absolute wrong reasons (because of Brexit, not fundamentals).  I cannot recall a similar scenario in recent history, where we dropped on such hyped up meaningless "bad" news from a 52 week high, and the drop was deserving for other reasons than what everyone thought.

We probably need to spend at least a day in this lower range, SPX 2010 to SPX 2040 before we can push down further, but lower prices seem imminent, with SPX 1980-1990 a level of good support, which should hold the first time down.  It doesn't help that there is a long 3 day weekend next week, which will make fund managers reluctant to add much to their equity positions this week.

Bonds look like they will retest the all time low 10 yr yields at 1.38%.  Expect more weakness over the coming days.  There will be time to buy a dip, but it is a bit too early for buyers to make their stand today.

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