Thursday, February 11, 2016


This is what capitulation looks like.  You have fear of European bank contagion as weakness in Deutsche Bank is spilling over to Societe Generale.  The weaker European sovereign bonds (Portugal, etc.) are getting crushed.  You saw a huge spike in Treasury futures just an hour ago and you are seeing serious selling in crude oil.  Unfortunately, I am already long, buying weakness on Monday and Tuesday.  If I was in cash, I would be a buyer of this panicky gap down.

We are in the middle of the storm, and those longs that can weather it will be able profit when its over.  Based on the number of gap downs and the scary headlines, we should be very close to a tradeable bottom.


Anonymous said...

Any thoughts on gold? Is it just related to falling dollar/falling rates?

Market Owl said...

I haven't done any trading on gold, and I have no strong opinion on it. The falling dollar is the big thing with gold. Gold loves 2 things the most: a falling dollar and rising inflation.