Thursday, October 8, 2015

Looking for a Pullback

The market has rallied for 7 trading days from the bottom last week.  This is the initial thrust higher, and it has been powerful.  But the internals of the rally, when I look at how the leaders are doing, is poor.  The Nasdaq favorites, the FANG, like FB, AMZN, NFLX, and GOOG have been lagging.  So have biotech stocks.  The leaders have been the laggards, like energy stocks.

Usually when you see the laggards leading the bounce, it is unsustainable, because those laggards are usually bouncing not because of fundamentals but because of poor investor positioning.  I would be more bullish if the leaders were coming from the stocks near 52 week highs.

Plus we have resistance around 2000, and the intraday price action the last couple of days seem to show that the market is tired here.  I am looking for a pullback down to 1970 to consolidate the move.  I would also look for the 10 year to get back under 2.0% in that move lower in equities.  Fed minutes should be dovish, but that is pretty much expected, so perhaps a sell the news reaction later today into tomorrow.

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