Friday, September 25, 2015

Fully Invested Bears

It has been one month since we got the panic crash in equities.  I wanted to see how investors have reacted to the sharp down turn, and it seems like business as usual.  You would think from all the bears parading on TV and social media that you would have outflows, but instead, there has been net inflows since the crash, even though we've just been going sideways during that time period.  To me, it seems like the bears are fully invested, or at least the bulls are active but keeping quiet.

It makes you wonder what made the market suddenly crater like it did.  So I compared the 5 days when the market cratered in August with the past month.  You can't tell the difference.  The largest ETFs just didn't have many outflows.

The only way I can interpret this is that there is not that much pent up demand to buy equities, because there wasn't that much selling in the first place.  Now when corporate buybacks start up again after earnings season, then it is a different story, but during this light buyback portion of the season, I don't see where the money will be flowing from.

We've got a big gap up working here, Europe seems to love it when Yellen talks tough, but hates it when she does nothing.  Anyway, I give this rally about 1 or 2 days maximum before it peters out and we get back to selling.

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