Wednesday, June 17, 2015

FOMC Today and Greece Tomorrow

The FOMC meetings over the past few years have been up days, with very few down days mixed in.  A lot of those up moves happen overnight and we have another pre-Fed gap up, although much small than it was a few hours ago.  I have noticed that Europe is noticeably weaker than the US so far today, looking at the futures, and it seems quite clear that investors are dumping European stocks ahead of a likely Greek default.  But the positive force of the Fed is keep the buying going after yesterday's rally.  I am inclined to lean towards a sell on the Fed announcement today, merely because the next big event should be the one that the market fears, a Greek default.  So I see upside being very limited, even though it is a Fed day, and expect to see selling after 2:00 PM ET.  I don't think the selling will be due to anything that Yellen says, because the Fed's default action is to lean dovish, which they will likely do again here today.  Even so, I don't think that is enough to lift this market much above current levels.  I am out of the ES long and waiting for a dip buying opportunity on Greek default fears in the coming days.  

Most of the action over the past few trading sessions has been to position ahead of a Greek default.  You can see it in the relative weakness of Europe, the bid in Bunds and Treasuries, and the Greek headlines.  Fund managers are selling equities, especially Europe, covering shorts in bonds, and raising cash to sidestep the Greek default event.  This makes it very likely that when we do get a Greek default, the dip will not last long, just because it isn't a fundamentally meaningful event, and most traders will have had plenty of warning to prepare for it.  

So I am sitting on my hands waiting for that dip buying opportunity on Greece default headlines.  I expect a face rip higher once the Street calms down and realizes that a big bad catalyst has been used up and didn't do any damage to their portfolios.  


MM111 said...

Do you think we could hit 2050 or even down to low 2020's if we get a greek default?

Market Owl said...

I think 2050 is possible, 2020s will be very difficult to get to. I would be a buyer anywhere close to 2050 on a Greece default.