Thursday, May 28, 2015

Dull S&P

We got the S&P 500 pullback on Tuesday, the first pullback after a grind higher is usually voraciously bought by dip buyers, and that is what happened on Wednesday.  Now we are back to no man's land, with no extremes that would interest me in either the long or short side.  I have focused my energy on individual stocks, with some Treasuries trading thrown in.

China cracked big time yesterday, going down 6.5%.  This reminds me of the internet bubble back in 1999 and 2000.  You have a parabolic move, with intermittent big down days to clean out the weak hands.  I still believe the bubble keeps going higher.  It is a stay away market for me, as the bubble is just not old enough to pop.  You need more time to suck in more investors before you reach saturation.  We are not there yet, and it should take at least another 3 to 6 months before we reach the peak.
There are no markets that are super interesting here, but I am looking at a possible crude oil long as it has pulled back closer to an area where I think there is good risk/reward.  Crude oil is usually seasonally strong during the summer, so I see limited downside here.  I am also looking into a possible Treasury short for next week, using any month end strength to put on a position.

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